Analysis and prediction on ecological risk of land use in arid oasis areas—A case study of Shaya County

Based on Spatial－markov model and remote sensing image data of Shaya county from 2008 to 2013，this paper predicted the variation law of land use structure in 2020，and discussed the resulting ecological risk. According to ecological risk index，the whole study areas were divided into five different regions，including lower risk region，low risk region，medium risk region，high risk region and higher risk region. Based on samples of ecological risk index，by semi－variogram analysis and spacialinterpolation，the spacial and temporal differences of ecological risk of land use in Shaya county were revealed. The results showed that forestland area and other land area decreased from 2008 to 2013， whereas grassland area and water area were almost the same. Through analysis and prediction，the land area in 2020 would change compared with 2013，forestland area and other land area would reduce obviously，and grassland area and water area would be almost the same，while arable land and construcion land area would increase. The ecosystem risk value of Shaya changed during the whole study period. As a whole，the ecological environment situation in Shaya county deteriorated from 2008 to 2013 and the ecological risk index changed from 0.018 to 0.021，yet the situation would relieve from 2013 to 2020 and the ecological risk index changed from 0.021 to 0.011.