An empirical research on multi-period pricing ofagricultural CAT bonds in China

Based on the catastrophe（CAT）bond pricing theory，from the perspective of risk management，thispaper combined the agricultural CAT risk production and bond term structure of interest rate，empirically analyzedthe data of rubber production in Hainan province in 1992-2012，then by spline regression model and kernel densityestimation，obtained the multi-period agricultural CAT risk bond prices and designed the corresponding agricultural CATbond products according to the bond parameter variations and combinations. The results showed that agricultural CATbond was both an effective method and important financial innovation against the huge losses caused by catastrophesin the agricultural sector；the bond price had negative correlation with the trigger value and yield of CAT bond，buthad positive correlation with the repayment of nominal value. Therefore，it was suggested that to increase the marketpopularity of agricultural CAT bonds，at the initial issuing stage，strong policy support was urgently needed from thegovernment，while the contractual details and parameters of bond should be carefully designed and regulated to meet upindividual preferences and behaviors for investment.