Epidemic trend prediction of rice blast by stepwise regression analysis model

Rice blast can cause the yield loss of rice in a large scale in China, the key to control it is forecasting this disease. By means of stepwise regression analysis, the authors selectead the optimum factors out of the weather factors influencing the epidemic trend of the rice blast. Then a stepwise regression analysis model to forecast the epidemic trend of rice blast was set up. Result showed that the accurate rate was 97.4%, and the accuracy of testing-forecast was also 85.3%. The accurate rate much high, the model can provide a foundation to forecast and control rice blast.