Research on the interaction between agricultural insurance and rural credit -based on mediator model with cointegration

The existing problem of rural credit in rural financial system has restrained improving agriculture and agricultural economy，that made rural finance become more and more lagging. To resolve the challenge in agricultural producing field, this paper puts forward the breakthrough that made the agricultural insurance as the condition when farmers wanted to get rural credit. The paper based on mediator model with cointegration and Granger Causality Test,reached a conclusion that there was long-term cointegration relation between agricultural insurance and rural credit. The results of Granger Causality Test have proved that agricultural insurance was the reason to rural credit when the time lagged 2 years or more, so agricultural insurance had the function of expanding rural credit. The estimated outputs indicated that mediator effect of rural credit was marked, and agricultural insurance promoted agricultural economy through the part mediator effect.