Positive empirical study of relativity and preliminary with dynamic trend model of the maize futures market of the United States and China

On the background of maize futures market in China and USA, taking the maize futures price in Chicago Commodity Exchange in the USA and Dalian Commodity Exchange in China from Oct. 2011 to Oct. 2012, and their relevant prices in spot market as objects, this study uses Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Co-integration, Granger Causality test to analyze the relevance and guidance of maize futures market between China and the USA. The results show that there is bi-directional leading relationship of maize futures market between China and the USA. Chicago maize futures price has obvious leading effect on Dalian爷s. This study also builds long-term equilibrium model and short-term dynamic prediction model of maize futures price of China based on the theory of Co-integration and Error Correction. The statistical indexes of the models show that the the dynamic prediction model has good fitting, can be applied to dynamic prediction of domestic maize futures price, and has a better reference for controlling the maize futures risk.