Empirical analysis on feed price fluctuation based on ARCH-type model in China

This paper analyzes the price fluctuation of three compound feeds in China with ARCH-type model援The monthly data is from 1995 to 2012. The result shows that the price of feeds has the significant conditional heteroscedasticity. And its fluctuation takes on the significant volatility clustering. The feeds market do not has the characteristics of high-risk and high-reward. The price change of feed market caused by the information of price up fluctuates more sharply than the change caused by the price down, which means the price fluctuations have significant asymmetry. According to the above analysis, it was proposed that the research on feed price subsidy policy should be enhanced and the integration of livestock industry chain should be encouraged to stabilize the feed price.