Balance and forcast on supply and demand of China's grain with ARIMA model

This paper used ARIMA model to analyze China’s grain supply and demand balance problems from 1949 to 2011,respectively established China’s grain production and demand time series model, and used the models to forecast the China’s grain demand and supply quantity during the year 2012—2017. The predicted results showed that China’s domestic grain supply would continue sustain grow, the demand would fluctuate grow, and domestic grain production and demand fluctuated between the proportion of 99.80%~101.05%, domestic grain production and demand rate would be 99.81% by 2012.