Geographic distribution and potential distribution estimation of Machilus breviflora

The geographical distribution of Machilus breviflora in China was analyzed based on DIVA-GIS， and the response of future potential distribution to global warming was estimated by Bioclim model．M. breviflora was distributed in the low to medium altitude from 200 m to 1 600 m mountain forests of south subtropical and tropical zone of China，which was 18°73′-30°66′N，104°02′-115°24′E. The distribution of vegetation types is evergreen broad-leaved forest and evergreen coniferous broad-leaved mixed forest. Guangdong province is the modern distribution center of M. breviflora，in 279 valid samples，231 samples were from Guangdong，accounting for about 82.8%. Potential distribution estimation indicated that Guangdong，Guangxi，Hainan，Jiangxi，Hunan， Fujian and Hong Kong，Sichuan and Guizhou were the optimum places for M. breviflora to survive. The model simulation indicated that the suitable habitats would initially increase under the climate change scenarios，whereas the marginally suitable habitats would have a relatively small change. The results could provide valuable references for the wildlife protecting，introduction and landscape application of M. breviflora.