经济因素对中国农村劳动力外出规模的影响研究——基于主成分分析的研究方法

    Effects of economic factors on migrant scale of rural labors—Based on the method of principal component analysis

    • 摘要: 我国农村劳动力外出规模逐年增加,城乡经济差别是影响农村劳动力外出规模的主要动因。通过经济因素分析,分别提出粮食产量、农用机械、工业、建筑业、第三产业、进出口额与城市化这些经济因素对农村劳动力外出规模均有影响的假设,利用统计年鉴的数据和主成份分析方法,克服这些经济指标之间的共线性,部分证实了农村劳动力外出规模与这些经济变量的相关性,多元回归模型与现实拟合较好。研究结果表明,3 次三产业发展对农村劳动力的转移都具有推动作用,但产业内部对农村劳动力的吸纳有差别。进出口贸易增加与城市化水平提高对农村劳动力的转移也都具有较大的推动作用。

       

      Abstract: It is significant for both urban economy and rural economy when rural labors migrate to cities. In this paper,by economic theory analysis,the authors brought forward the hypothesis,positive correlativity between the economic variables and rural labors. These economic variables included grain yield,farm-oriented mechanical industry, building industry,tertiary industry,value of export and import and the rate of urbanizing. With the method of principle component analysis,it could overcome the together linear among these economics variables. It was demonstrated that rural labor forces had some relevance to these economic variables by the regression model,it matched very well with the real data. The research illustrated that all the industrial development,including first,secondary and tertiary industry development,contributed to the migrant labor scale. The role played by inner industry was different. Development trade of export and import and raising urbanization level also had push effects on migrant of rural labors.

       

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