西南喀斯特地区农业旱灾脆弱性评价———以贵州省为例

Research on agricultural drought vulnerability evaluation and hazard-relief strategy in Karst areas in southwestern China——An example from Guizhou province

摘要: 农业旱灾脆弱性是涉及致灾因子、孕灾环境以及承灾体3 方面的复杂系统，其脆弱性程度决定了干旱灾害的生成和强度。科学评价农业旱灾脆弱性对防旱抗旱有着重要现实意义。构建了贵州农业旱灾脆弱性评价指标体系，并应用时间序列数据，建立了基于主成分分析要德尔菲法的改进TOPSIS 模型，对2006—2012年期间贵州农业旱灾脆弱性发展态势进行分析，以期为促进贵州农业持续健康发展提供参考借鉴。

Abstract: Drought vulnerability of agriculture is a complex system concerning about three aspects of disaster -inducing factors, hazard inducing environment and hazard -affected body, and its vulnerability degree determines the generation and strength of drought disaster. Scientific evaluation on drought vulnerability of agriculture has important realistic significance to the protection and resistance of drought. This article constructed the evaluation index system for drought vulnerability of agriculture at Guizhou and established the improved TOPSIS model based on principal component analysis and Delphi method by applying time series data, analyzed the development trend of agricultural drought vulnerability in Guizhou from 2006 to 2012, to provide reference for promoting the constant and healthy development of Guizhou’agriculture.