面包虾中金黄色葡萄球菌生长预测模型的建立

    Construction of predictive model for the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in bread shrimp

    • 摘要: 为了研究金黄色葡萄球菌在面包虾中的生长规律,通过测定14、18、22、27、32、37℃下金黄色葡萄球菌在面包虾中的生长数据,采用修正Gompertz、修正Logistic、Baranyi、Weibull模型拟合生长曲线。通过比较4种模型的相关系数和标准差,采用最优模型拟合一级模型,将最优一级模型拟合出的最大比生长速率(μm)与迟滞期(λ)建立与温度的二级模型。结果表明,修正Gompertz 模型最适合拟合生长曲线,模型经偏差因子(Bf)和准确因子(Af)验证,均在合适的范围内,表明所建模型能有效预测金黄色葡萄球菌在面包虾中的生长情况。

       

      Abstract: To characterize the growth of Staphylococcus aureus in bread shrimp, the growth trend of S. aureus was determined at different temperatures (14℃, 18℃, 22℃, 27℃, 32℃ and 37 ℃), the modified Gompertz, modified Logistic,Baranyi, Weibull model were used to fit growth curve. The paper compared the goodness-of -fit of four models using determination of coefficient and standard deviation, and the optimal model to fit primary model, therefore, the growth rate (μm) and lag time (λ) obtained from the optimal model were employed to establish the secondary model. Results showed,the modified Gompertz model was more suitable to describe the growth data, the model were validated using bias factor (Bf), accuracy factor (Af) , were within the reliable range, which indicated that the presented predictive model could be used to assess the grow situation of S.aureus in bread shrimp.

       

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