基于VAR模型的林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易关系研究

Empirical study on relationship between forestry economic growth and import and export of forestry products based on VAR model

摘要: 选取1994—2012 年的主要林产品进出口值与林业总产值的年度数据为研究样本，建立VAR模型，对林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易的动态关系进行实证研究。结果表明：林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易存在长期稳定的均衡关系，并互为格兰杰因果关系。从长期而言，两者互相存在较弱的正效应。林业经济增长与林产品进出口贸易分别对两者的贡献度相比，林业经济增长对自身以及林产品进出口贸易的贡献度较大。

Abstract: Based on the data of forestry products trade and gross forestry production from 1994 to 2012, this paper established a VAR model to figure out the dynamic relationship between forestry products trade and forestry economic growth in China. The results showed that there was a long-term interaction mechanism and a two-way Granger causality between them. In the long term, the positive effect of each other was quiet small. The contribution of forestry economy to forestry products trade and forestry economic growth was relatively greater than forestry products trade did.