广东龙眼产业发展现状与“十五五”展望

    Current Situation of Longan Industry in Guangdong and the Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan

    • 摘要: 广东省龙眼产量与消费量均居全国首位,是南亚热带特色果业的重要代表。本文基于2016—2025年广东省级产业统计数据,解析广东省龙眼产业发展态势、制约瓶颈以及转型路径。结果表明:(1)规模与结构层面,全省龙眼种植面积保持11.56万hm2,占全国种植面积的43.20%,但品种集中度过高,同质化问题突出;(2)效率与布局层面,粤西产区凭借龙眼早熟优势形成较强的价格竞争力,而珠三角产区受制于边际报酬递减与要素成本刚性上涨,比较优势呈弱化趋势;(3)价值链层面,2016—2025年龙眼生产成本攀升36.20%,加之国际贸易环境变化,导致省内产业面临“增产不增收”与出口受阻的严峻挑战。进一步分析发现,龙眼产业链韧性不足主要体现在品种创新滞后、山地机械化率低下、加工转化率偏低等方面。因此,“十五五”时期,广东省龙眼产业需以种业创新为核心驱动力,以“宜机化改造+智慧农业”为生产支撑,以梯次加工与减损增效为增值手段,以绿色防控与品牌建设为品质保障。该文不仅为破解广东省龙眼产业同质性竞争与低效供给难题提供实证支持,也为我国南亚热带特色水果参与国际竞争、实现内外双循环协同发展提供经验启示。

       

      Abstract: Guangdong Province ranks first nationwide in both longan planting output and consumption, serving as a key representative of the southern subtropical characteristic fruit industry.Based on Guangdong provincial industrial statistics data from 2016 to 2025, this paper analyzes the development trends, bottlenecks and transformation paths of the longan industry in Guangdong Province. The study draws the following findings: (1) In terms of scale and structure, the province's longan planting area remains stable at 1.156×105 hm2. Although it accounts for 43.20% of the national total planting area, the industry suffers from excessive concentration of varieties and prominent homogenization. (2) With regard to production efficiency and spatial layout, western Guangdong producing areas possess strong price competitiveness by virtue of early-maturing varieties. In contrast, the Pearl River Delta producing areas face diminishing marginal returns and rigid increases in factor costs, leading to a declining comparative advantage. (3) From the value chain perspective, production costs have risen by 36.20% over the decade. Coupled with shifts in the international trade environment, the local industry is confronted with severe challenges including "output growth without income growth" and hindered exports. Further analysis reveals that the insufficient resilience of the industrial chain is mainly reflected in lagging variety innovation, low mechanization rate in mountainous orchards and a low processing conversion rate. Accordingly, during the 15th Five-Year Plan period, the longan industry in Guangdong Province should take seed industry innovation as the core driving force, adopt "mechanization-suitable orchard transformation + smart agriculture" as production support, rely on graded processing and loss reduction & efficiency improvement as value-added approaches, and implement green prevention and control alongside brand building as quality guarantees. The conclusions of this research not only provide empirical evidence for addressing homogeneous competition and inefficient supply within Guangdong's longan industry, but also offer insights for China's southern subtropical characteristic fruits to engage in international competition and achieve coordinated development of the domestic and international dual circulation.