广东水稻产业发展现状与“十五五”展望

    Current Situation of Rice Industry in Guangdong and Prospects for the 15th Five-Year Plan

    • 摘要: 基于2005—2024年宏观统计数据与2023年微观调研数据,运用比较分析法与趋势分析法,系统分析广东省水稻种植规模、产能分布、产需平衡、成本收益、品种应用以及机械化发展等情况。研究结果显示,2005年以来广东水稻种植面积总体呈下降趋势,但稻谷总产量保持相对稳定,单产水平稳步提升,优质稻种植比例持续提高。在产能分布方面,广东水稻生产区域发展不均衡,粤西与粤北山区为两大主产区,珠三角及粤东地区种植规模持续收缩,其中粤东地区户均耕地规模较小,“人多地少”矛盾突出。在供需方面,尽管城乡居民人均稻米消费量持续下降,但受人口总量与加工需求增长等因素影响,广东水稻产需缺口不断扩大,粮食自给率处于较低水平。从成本收益看,广东水稻生产总成本持续上升,而粮价维持较低水平,导致利润率持续下滑,成为南方稻作大省中亏损最严重的省份。在机械化发展方面,机械插秧、烘干、无人机飞防等环节的应用较为薄弱。综上,结合广东水稻产业发展情况,需要优化区域布局与品种结构,进一步提高优质高产品种推广,推动水稻生产适度规模经营,强化生产成本精准管控,提高水稻生产全程机械化率,完善产业园区集群化发展模式,从全产业链角度提升广东水稻产业综合竞争力,筑牢粮食安全屏障,支撑农业强省建设。

       

      Abstract: Based on macro-level statistical data from 2005 to 2024 and micro-level survey data from 2023, this paper employs comparative analysis and trend analysis to systematically examine rice cultivation scale, production capacity distribution, supply-demand balance, cost-benefit dynamics, variety application, and mechanization development in Guangdong Province. The findings reveal that since 2005, the rice cultivation area in Guangdong has shown a general downward trend, while total rice production has remained relatively stable, with per-unit yield steadily increasing and the proportion of high-quality rice varieties continuously rising. In terms of production capacity distribution, rice production across different regions of Guangdong is unevenly distributed: western Guangdong and the northern mountainous areas serve as the two main production zones, while the Pearl River Delta and eastern Guangdong have seen a sustained contraction in planting scale. In eastern Guangdong, the average farmland per household is limited, highlighting a prominent contradiction of "More people and less land". On the supply-demand front, although per capita rice consumption among urban and rural residents has continued to decline, the gap between rice production and demand has widened due to population growth and increased processing demand, resulting in a relatively low food self-sufficiency rate. In terms of cost and benefit, the total cost of rice production in Guangdong has been rising, while rice prices have remained low, leading to a persistent decline in profit margins, making the province the most loss-affected among the major rice-producing provinces in southern China. Regarding mechanization, the application of mechanical transplanting, drying, and unmanned aerial vehicle plant protection remain relatively weak. In summary, considering the overall development context of the rice industry in Guangdong, it is necessary to optimize regional distribution and variety structure, improve the promotion of high-quality high-yield varieties, promote appropriately scaled rice production, strengthen precise cost control, increase the rate of full-process mechanization, and improve the clustered development model of industrial parks. These efforts will comprehensively enhance the overall competitiveness of Guangdong's rice industry, reinforce food security, and support the construction of a strong agricultural province.