Objective Clarify the distribution pattern of suitable areas for Neoclytus acuminatus, a major invasive forest pest in China, and its response to future climate change as well as its potential invasion risk, so as to provide a scientific basis for precise prevention and control of this pest.

Method Based on the global distribution data of N. acuminatus, current and future climate data under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5), topographic factors, and host vegetation distribution data, we predicted the potential suitable areas of N. acuminatus in China using the Biomod2 ensemble model, identified its potential damage areas through spatial overlay analysis, and analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics and centroid migration patterns of its suitable areas under climate change.

Result Under current climatic conditions, the total potential suitable area of N. acuminatus in China reaches 474.02×10⁴ km², accounting for 49.38% of the country's total land area. The highly suitable areas (92.69×10⁴ km²) are mainly concentrated in southern Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Anhui, Fujian, Guangxi, Guangdong and other regions in China. Under four future SSP climate scenarios, the total suitable area shows an expanding trend with rising CO₂ emission concentrations, with the newly increased suitable area ranging from 77.36 × 10⁴ km² to 177.85 × 10⁴ km². The suitable areas present an overall expansion trend toward high-latitude and western regions of China, with a maximum westward migration distance of the distribution centroid reaching 1 033.31 km. The overlay analysis of suitable areas and host distribution revealed that the potential damage area of N. acuminatus in China is102.26 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 46.44% of the total host distribution area.

Conclusion N. acuminatus has a wide suitable range and high invasion risk in China, and climate change will further expand its suitable areas. Its potential damage areas are highly overlapped with the major forest regions and orchards in China. It is recommended to strengthen quarantine monitoring and early warning at the expansion front of the suitable areas to strictly prevent its spread and invasion.