气候变化对农作物生产力与种植结构的影响——基于DNDC-CGE 模型的仿真研究

    Influence of climate change on the agricultural productivity and planting structure—Simulation study based on DNDC-CGE model

    • 摘要: 农业作为“靠天吃饭”的行业,气候变化势必对农作物的生产力与种植结构产生深刻影响。结合增温、降水减少和二氧化碳浓度增加进行情景设定,并通过所构建的中国地区DNDC-CGE 模型开展仿真。研究发现,气候变暖将促使大多数农作物(如玉米、水稻、甘蔗等)的单产增加,但市场的供求规律将使得相关农产品价格逆向浮动,进而改变农户种植行为,促使他们将大量农地挪用于种植其他价高作物;降水减少使得甘蔗、马铃薯等单产减少,且水稻和谷物的种植面积、价格与行业增加值下降;二氧化碳浓度提高将使得绝大多数农作物的产量得到正向提升,仅不利于纤维作物增产。总体而言,气候变化有利于中国整体的GDP 增长。

       

      Abstract: Agriculture is the industry that would be seriously affected by weather, and climate change would have profound impacts on crop productivity and planting structure. To make clear this problem, this paper set several scenarios considering temperature changes, precipitation decline and CO2 concentration increase, and build a DNDC—CGE model of China to simulate them. The results show that temperature rise will increase the unit yields of most crops, but market supply-demand discipline would make their prices float reversely, which change framers’ behavior, transferring farmlands to plant other crops which price would be increased by the marker forces. Precipitation decline will decrease most crops’ yields, especially sugarcane and potato, and the planting area, price and added value of rice and grain will decrease. On the other hand, CO2 concentration increase will increase most crops’ yields, but it is unbeneficial to fiber crop’s production increase. In total, Climate change is good for the GDP growth of China.

       

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