海南岛莲雾低温阴雨灾害风险区划研究
Risk zoning of low temperature and continuousrain for wax apple in Hainan Island
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摘要: 低温阴雨是影响海南莲雾冬季花果期的重要因素,持续低温阴雨过程造成落花、落果和裂果等现象发生。为合理布局莲雾种植、减轻低温阴雨灾害影响,利用1994—2014 年海南岛18 个市县的历史气象资料和灾情状况建立了基于莲雾生物学特性的低温阴雨灾害综合气候模型,并结合莲雾种植面积、人均GDP、各市县边界数据等资料分别构建了致灾因子危险性、承灾体易损性和防灾减灾能力指数,最终评估了海南莲雾种植低温阴雨灾害综合风险。结果表明,海南莲雾低温阴雨灾害风险区划呈现明显的纬度带状分布格局,由北向南风险值逐渐降低,其中高风险区集中于海南岛北部,中风险区位于西北部、中部和东北部的带状区域,低风险区主要集中在南部和西部地区。Abstract: Low temperature and continuous-rain is an important factor that affects the flowering fruit bearing stage of wax apple in Hainan Island,it leads to blossom drop,fruit drop and fruit cracking. In order to adjust wax apple planting structure,alleviate the impact of low temperature and continuous-rain disasters,this paper used the historical meteorological data in 1994-2014 from 18 meteorological stations in Hainan Island and disaster situation to build the climate model based on biological characteristics of wax apple. Combined with wax apple cultivation area, per capita GDP,boundary data and other data,this paper built disaster-causing factors hazard,vulnerability, disaster prevention capability,and evaluated the comprehensive climate risks. The results indicated that risk zoning of low temperature and continuous-rain showed significant latitude zonal distribution pattern,risk value decreased from north to south. High risk zones were located in the north of Hainan Island,moderate risk zones were located in the zonal region of northwest,middle part and northeast,low risk zones were located in the southern and western regions in Hainan Island.