Objective The study investigates the spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land area and its dynamic response to grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, aiming to provide reference for coordinating the integrated development of "storing grain in farmland" and "storing grain in agricultural technology" and ensuring national food security.

Method Based on the prefecture-level city scale data of cultivated land area and grain yield in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain from 2000 to 2023, this study employed mathematical statistics and GIS spatial analysis to explore the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of cultivated land area and the sensitivity of grain yield to cultivated land area changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai.

Result The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain featured a concurrent trend of decreasing cultivated land area and continuous growth in total grain yield. The total cultivated land area decreased from 6.97×10⁸ hm² to 6.64×10⁸ hm², with a reduction of 4.69%. The average value of cultivated land dynamic degree was −0.25%, and its reduction rate showed a trend of fast at first and slow later. Cultivated land presented a spatial distribution pattern roughly characterized by intensification in the central area and fragmentation in the marginal areas. Total grain yield increased from 1.72×10⁸ t to 2.42×10⁸ t, with an increase of 40.98%. The areas of general gain deficit and severe gain deficit regions continued to shrink, while the general grain surplus and important gain surplus regions centered around the "Shandong-Henan-Anhui Grain Sarplus Corridor" expanded continuously. The cultivated land area gravity center migrated a cumulative distance of 4.71 km, without an obvious directional trend. The grain yield gravity center moved a total distance 19.57 km along the path of "northwest-southwest-northwest-southeast". The sensitivity of grain yield to cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain had increased. The number of prefecture-level cities with low, moderate and high sensitivity increased from 17 to 37, accounting for 48.68% of the total, whereas insensitivty prefecture-level cities still dominated the overall distribution.

Conclusion The spatiotemporal evolution of cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain and its dynamic response to grain yield exhibited fluctuations and differences across various development stages. The cultivated land area in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain is not the core factor dominating changes in grain yield. Accordingly, this study proposes the following countermeasures and suggestions: strengthening the protection of existing cultivated land and tap the grain yield potential of cultivated land; advance agricultural scientific and technological innovation to promote stable grain yield and income growth; break the reliance on the single grain production supply model and diversify grain supply sources.